MWBoone & Associates Wealth Management blog

Last Thursday, the U.S. trade data was reported for the month of January reflecting a brief pause in an improving trend of export growth. On the same day, the stock market, measured by the S&P 500, moved up to a new 17-month high. The market reaction was fitting since export growth is a key driver of the economy and profits for S&P 500 companies. In fact, exports accounted for……

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:50 PM | Permalink

What We Make of the Key Reports Last Week:

The vast majority of last week’s U.S. economic reports support our view that the U.S economy remains on track for a sustainable recovery in 2010. The key report of the week was the better-than-expected February retail sales data, but data on jobless claims, merchandise trade, mortgage applications, consumers’ balance sheets, and business inventories also……

One year ago, on March 9, 2009, the stock market began a rally that has led to a total return of 72% for the S&P 500, through the end of last week. As we reach this anniversary it is worth taking a look back at the powerful rally that has unfolded and seek clues as to what may lie ahead……

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Over the past week, the LPL Financial Current Conditions Index held steady at 1.7. The level of the Current Conditions Index indicates an environment fostering trend-like growth in the economy and markets. We expect that the CCI may…..

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Key Reports Last Week:

The economic data last week was a mixed bag, but financial markets generally reacted well, even to the data that fell short of expectations. Many of the U.S. economic reports last week were impacted by severe weather in February, but the impact was more muted than we (and most market participants) expected. The key report of the week was the February jobs report. Bad weather kept more than……

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Groundhog Day came late in February for the stock market. Last Thursday’s worsening weekly unemployment claims data spooked stock market investors worried about job growth as February winter storms negatively impacted the data. In that labor report, the stock market saw……

Key Reports Last Week:

It was definitely a mixed bag for U.S. economic data last week, with more good news on the Business sector offset by some disturbing news on the consumer sector and the Labor Market. On balance, the market reacted well to the mix of generally weaker news, suggesting……

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below: www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_3_1_10

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 12:46 PM | Permalink

The Federal Reserve moved another step in the process of “normalizing” monetary policy last week, announcing a 25 basis point increase to the discount rate—the rate the Fed charges banks who borrow money from the Fed—after the market closed on Thursday. The move was well telegraphed, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke mentioned ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:47 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Believe it or not, 49 of the 50 states (sorry, Hawaii) had some snow on the ground on Friday, February 12, capping off a historic week for snowfall in many mid-Atlantic cities. Barring an unlikely heat wave over the final half of the month, February’s harsh weather pattern is likely to impact economic data ranging from……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_2_16_10

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 04:14 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The economic data released last week was solid, but largely overlooked, as markets focused on sovereign credit risk in southern Europe. The week’s attention grabbing report, the January employment report, was……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_2_08_10

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:02 AM | Permalink

The data released last week (and early on Monday, February 1) can be grouped into The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. The “Good” news dominated the “Bad” and “Ugly”, suggesting that the economic data was……

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The economic data released last week was largely a sideshow, given the news on the special election in Massachusetts, financial regulation, the late -week drama surrounding the reappointment of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and policy tightening in China. The two most disturbing reports released last week were……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:05 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

On balance, last week’s economic data did little to change our forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q4 2009, or our outlook for Federal Reserve policy or inflation in 2010.

This week, the economic data takes a backseat to the deluge of Q4 corporate earnings reports, as the market……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 05:16 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The LPL Financial Current Conditions Index rose by 0.1 to 1.5, making another new high for the year. The CCI has had a late year growth spurt over the past several weeks. The index reflects current conditions aligned with the high end of our base case outlook, established at the end of last year, for mid-teen gains in the stock market an mid-single digit gains in the bond market in 2009, as measured by the S&P 500 index and the Barclays Aggregate Index respectively. The markets have already achieved these gains. However, the CCI implies the economy and markets are on track for an outcome somewhat better than our original base case outlook for 2009.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Current_Conditions_Index_12_23_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:13 AM | Permalink

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 04:44 PM | Permalink

The end of the year is a good time to think about how you'll handle your financial investments, but it's also a good time to consider how you'll handle your number one investment — you.

With the stresses of work and other responsibilities, people often forget about treating themselves well, but the notion of investing in you goes beyond giving yourself a little time off or a treat at the mall. If you've ever wondered if your job could be better, if you could be earning more money, or if you simply could be happier, it makes sense to develop a plan to get there.

Here are first steps in creating a self-investment plan:

Continue reading "7 Steps to Create a Self-investment Plan" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:56 PM | Permalink

Last Week's busy slate of economic data and events supported our view that the U.S. economy will post a 3.0 to 3.5% growth rate (as measured by real Gross Domestic Product) in Q4 2009, and that growth will continue at or above that pace over the first part of 2010. There were certainly some disappointing data points last week, among them:

* The below 50 reading on the Institute of Supply Managment's service sector index for November.
* The weaker than expected chain store sales data for November.
* A further drop in consumer confidence in early December.
* The sharp downward revisions to construction activity in August and September suggest that Q3 GDP will be revised down further.

However, there was better than expected news last week.........

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http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_12_7_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 01:25 PM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:55 AM | Permalink

The LPL Financial Research Current Condition Index (CCI) is an objective and transparent measure of how the conditions are evolving relative to our base case, bear, and bull cases defined in our Outlook 2009 publication. This weekly index is not intended to be a leading index or predictive of where conditions are headed, but merely a coincident measure of where they are right now. We want to track the conditions in real time to aid investment decision making. There are thousands of indicators-some lead the economy, some lag, while others merely offer a lot of statistical noise. We chose to create our own index tailored to the current environment to provide the clearest and most useful way to track how conditions are aligned with the expectations embedded in our investment recommendations.

To view the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Current_Conditions_Index_12_2_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:04 AM | Permalink

If you don't have an estate plan in place, a will, a trust, a health care proxy and the like, now — regardless of your age or life stage — would be a good time to put your affairs in order. But if you already have an estate plan in place, do you know when you should be updating it?

Here are 12 things to consider:

Continue reading "Protect Your Legacy. Update Your Estate Plan" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 12:41 PM | Permalink

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:42 AM | Permalink

Last week's rather sparse U.S. economic data calendar highlighted two fundamental factors that are driving the U.S. dollar lower: the twin trade and budget deficits. While a weak report on consumer sentiment in early November was worrisome, data on jobless claims, banks' willingness to lend, another set of robust economic data from China, and the weaker dollar were enough to keep the eight month, 65% rally in the U.S. equity markets on track.

In sharp contrast to last week's data calendar, this week's is chock full of data. Among the reports due out are:

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_11_16_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:06 AM | Permalink

With many market participants fretting about the sustainability of the economic recovery, we thought that last week's slate of economic data would have to "run the table" in order for the equity market to break the slump it had been in mid-October. For the most part, the data released last week did "run the table", with the vast majority of reports coming in at or above expectations. The market also benefited from another "friendly" FOMC statement, in which Federal Reserve (Fed) policy makers upgraded their assesment of the economy, but again promised to keep rates low "for an extended period". Equity markets responded positively to the preponderance of good news, as the S&P 500 posted a healthy 3.2% gain in the week, the first weekly gain since mid October.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_11_9_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:17 PM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:55 AM | Permalink

Back in the summer months of May, June, and July, the stock market, measured by the S&P 500, remained in a range around 900 after investors moved from pricing in another great depression to a typical recession. Now, this fall, the S&P 500 has been in a range around 1050 as investors have moved from pricing in a typical recession to a recovery. The recent pattern of performance of the S&P 500 is remarkably similar to what place during the early summer months.

The nearby chart of the S&P 500 compares this summer's performance (from Aprll 22 through July 31) and the pattern this fall (from September 1 to now). They are nearly a perfect match, with the fall being exactly 150 points higher on the index than during summer. What this suggests is that recent slide may not be the end of the pullback either. An eventual move down of a few more percentage points in the next few weeks may unfold if ....

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http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_11_2_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:27 AM | Permalink

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:48 AM | Permalink

After crossing the 10,000 for the first time in a year, the Dow finished the week just below that threshold - but up for the second straight week, gaining 1.3%. The S&P 500 added a similar 1.5% on the week, up 61% since early March but still off 31% from the October 2007 peak.

The stocks market gain was solid, but clearly reflects lofty expectations for earnings since a record-breaking 79% of the 61 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 that have reported third-quarter earnings so far managed to beat analysts' profit projections. Based on last week's reception, companies appear to have to present revenue growth combined with much better than earnings expected results to generate anything more than a yawn from the stock market - which appears to be nearly saturated with good news.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_10_19_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:25 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:44 AM | Permalink

Our mission is to offer the best advice, tools, and resources available to help you meet your financial goals. Guided by three tenets, performance, service, and transparency, the team is committed to delivering to all three through conflict free, actionable manager guidance, effective assett allocation positioning, timely economic and market perspectives, and visibility into our process.

Please click on the link below to view the rest of this article:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/LPL_Advancing_Your_Perspective.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:47 AM | Permalink

Last week's 5% stock market rally, as measured by the S&P 500, was driven primarily by a positive start to the third quarter earnings season. While we cautioned last week about drawing conclusions on third quarter results too early, we can't help but note that a number of companies gave us just what we were looking for by posting better than expected sequential revenue growth and a high 74% of companies are beating expectations.

We had expected a renewed rally to begin last week after stocks have been in a range of 1025 to 1075 on the S&P 500 for the past month. We raised our recommended stock weighting just prior to last week as the earnings reporting season was about to get underway. During the past two quarters, the stock market moved sideways in the two weeks prior to the start of the earnings season then rallied as the reports came in. This pattern appears to be unfolding again this season.
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http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_10_12_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:37 AM | Permalink

The data this past week was sparse, but the data that was released was generally above expectations, including the:

* Service sector ISM report for September

* Jobless claims for the week ending September 26

* Chain store sales for September

* September trade balance

In addition, we saw a spike in mortgage applications in early October and a better than expected reading on the nation's trade deficit in September. Financial markets reacted accordingly, with the S&P 500 rising 4.5% in the week, while the yield on the 10 year Treasury note rose nearly 20 basis points, to 3.38%, from under 3.2% a week earlier.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Commentary_10_12_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:28 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:52 PM | Permalink

The weak September jobs report, released on Friday, October 2, brought a disappointing month of economic data to a close. In June, July, and August, about 70% of the economic data came in above expectations. In September and early October however, the vast majority of economic releases were below (raised) expectations. As noted above, the much anticipated September jobs report also came in below expectations, and there were few “silver linings” in the report. (see below for details). Our key take away from the September jobs report is that the steady improvement in the labor market (from horrendous, to horrible, to awful, to bad) over the last eight months seems to have stalled out at “bad” in September. This calls into question our forecast that the economy will begin to generate job growth by year end. It does not, however, alter our overall views on the economy, inflation or the Fed.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_10_5_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:43 AM | Permalink

After advancing 8 of the previous 10 weeks, stocks experienced a correction last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 1.6% to close at 9,665, the S&P 500 Index declining 2.2% to 1,044 and the Nasdaq Composite falling 2.0% to 2,091. Nevertheless, barring disastrous market activity over the next few days, September should mark the seventh consecutive positive month for stocks.

The Federal Reserve met last week and kept the benchmark Federal Funds target unchanged at a range of between 0% and 0.25%, but indicated that economic conditions have to conitnued to improve. The Fed also retained the message that "economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period". As such, we have no expectation that the Fed will begin tightening policy anytime soon. 

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Blackrock_Investment_Commentary_9_28_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 12:01 PM | Permalink

The dollar rose about 1% late last week, the most sizable move to the upside in a month, after hitting the lowest level in a year on Wednesday. The rise in the dollar was accompanied by a move toward high quality investments driving declines in stocks and commodities. However, this bounce is likely to be short-lived with the dollar returning to the downward trend for an extended period.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_9_30_09.pdf 

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 01:47 PM | Permalink

Financial markets took a breather last week after enduring one of the worst weeks for economic data (relative to raised expectations) in many months. Reports on durable goods orders, home sales, leading indicators and consumer sentiment data all came in at or below expectations. Overlooked in the week, may have been the better news on the labor market in September, as jobless claims fell again and the employment components of both Richmond and Kansas City Reserve surveys indicating that the labor market continued to improve in September.

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:35 PM | Permalink

The need for objective advice has never been greater. Amid an ever-changing investment landscape investors need an expert and experienced partner who can guide them through the intricacies of investing and financial planning .

As a long term investor, you are faced with a wide array of financial considerations. You may need to provide financial assistance for a child's college education or help support an aging parent. In addition, you must prepare for your own retirement and consider what's to be done with your estate.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Large_Capabilities_Brochure_0809.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 01:16 PM | Permalink

Virtually every market posted gains last week, including: U.S. stocks, foreign stocks, real estate, commodities, and precious metals - only bonds were slightly lower following three weeks of gains. The markets are well off of their lows. In recent months, market participants' behavior has been defined by the mantra "anything but cash". Since their peak, money market fund outflows have totaled nearly $500 billion as that cash has been put to work in the markets.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_9_21_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:48 AM | Permalink

Last week yet another stellar week for economic reports - which generally confirmed that the economy is on track for solid growth in Q3 2009 - finally began to attract some attention from financial markets. The S&P 500 posted a 2.5% gain for the second consecutive week, while the yield on both the two-year and ten-year U.S. Treasury notes climbed noticeably from the prior week. This suggests that maybe, financial market participants (especially in Treasury bond market) are beginning to come to the realization that the economic recovery is here to stay.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the article below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_9_21_09.pdf 

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:54 AM | Permalink

Continue reading "What a Difference a Year Makes" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:44 AM | Permalink

On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. That was the event that precipitated the peak of the financial crisis. Let's not just look back at what event meant for the markets, but also forward to what it means today and what the consequences of the financial crisis may be for the markets in the years to come.

While GDP growth was below average in the first half of 2008, it was below average in the first half of 2008, it was positive and credit markets were functioning. The TED spread began 2008 at 1% then doubled around the time Bear Stearns was bailed out when JP Morgan absorbed it with the Federal Reserve guaranteeing a lot of the toxic assets. The potential crisis appeared to be averted and the TED Spread narrowed to 1% again. During the summer the rate rose again this time as Fannie and Freddie - the two entities that make possible about half of the home loans in America - were bailed out and effectively nationalized............

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http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_9_14_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:44 AM | Permalink

As the first full week of September begins, market participants are likely to continue to dismiss economic data showing that economic growth (as measured by real gross domestic product) returned in Q3 2009, and beyond persist. Due in part to the impact of the "cash for clunkers" program, the deluge of economic data due out this week in August and September is not likely to provide the market a clearer picture of the economy in Q4 and beyond. As such, we expect the economic data to largely be ignored by market particpants, who will likely be more focused on the beginning of Q3 earnings preannouncement season, a potential trade war with China, the ongoing policy wrangling in Washington, and the one year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_9_14_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:58 AM | Permalink

Last week, financial markets behaved as they normally do during the last full week of summer - i.e. they went nowhere fast - despite another great slate of economic data. Looking ahead, with the relatively light economic calendar this week ( the only key reports due out this week are the weekly jobless claims report and the July merchandise trade report); the market's focus may turn to more "macro" issues. This week is full of just those issues, beginning with the release of both the Fed's Beige Book - qualitative assessment of the economy since the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and the OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria on Wednesday. In addition, the return of Congress and the President to Washington will kick off what is likely to be a contentious fall of legislative policy debate that has the potential to move markets.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_9_8_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:32 AM | Permalink

Wall Street's reputation couldn't be much worse, and that's very good for business at brokerages eager to snag defectors from bigger firms. One of the most aggressive outsiders in tapping dissatisfaction among brokers and investors since the credit crisis began is LPL Financial Holdings Inc. Its LPL Financial is nowhere close to a household name, but has grown into the fifth-largest U.S. brokerage firm, with 12,294 financial advisers, including more than 5,288 that have come aboard since 2006.

 To see the rest of this article, pleas click on the link below: 

http://www.mwboone.com/library/WSJ_LPL.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:52 AM | Permalink

LPL Financial ranks second in full service investor satisfaction, according to the J.D Power and Associates 2009 U.S. Full Service Investor Satisfaction Study. With an overall score of of 773 points on a 1000-point scale, LPL Financial's performance is 42 points above the industry average. The study measures overall investor satisfaction with full service investment firms in the United States, based on six factors that influence the investor experience........

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/LPL_JDPOWER2009.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:02 AM | Permalink

China’s stock market, measured by the Shanghai Composite Index, fell 19.7% from August 4 to August 19—narrowly avoiding the 20% decline often referred to as the threshold for a bear market. After climbing more than 100% during the nine months since the low on November 4, 2008, a 20% pullback is not all that alarming or surprising, and the index regained one quarter of the decline late last week as it rebounded off of a key technicallevel. However, the volatility in the Chinese stock market raises a question about the potential volatility in the underlying Chinese Economy after an explosive 16% GDP growth rate in the second quarter and the resulting impact of a potential Chinese economic slowdown on emerging market stocks and commodity prices.

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:53 AM | Permalink

U.S. equity markets all but shrugged off a relatively weak run of economic data last week, finishing down slightly. The Federal Reserve weighed in as well last week, signaling that it was planning to end its Treasury purchase program in October. Otherwise, the statement from the Federal  Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policy making arm, provided few clues as to how (or when) the Fed will begin to remove the policy stimulus it has put into place over the past 18 months or so. This debate will likely dominate the investing landscape over the next six to nine months.

On balance, last week's economic data came in on the weaker side of expectations, that has been the exception, not the rule lately. Prior to last week, roughly two-thirds of the economic data released over the last two or three months has come in above expectations. The weaker - than expected data released last week doesnt change our view that the recession ended in late Q2 2009 or early Q3 2009 and that a recovery is now underway. The market is still debating the pace, shape, and sustainability of the recovery.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_8_18_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:52 AM | Permalink

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_8_18_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 12:48 PM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:28 AM | Permalink

The old adage that the market climbs a wall of worry is rooted in historical evidence. History shows us that the prevailing climate during powerful rallies is most often one where conditions are still negative and the majority of investors are bearish and pessimistic. The stock and corporate bond markets have been climbing a wall of worry since early March.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the United States lost a net 247,000 jobs during the month of July and registered a 9.4% unemployment rate. the stock market, measured by the S&P 500 index, rallied 1%  to a new high for the year, bringing the rally total to a 50% gain since the low on March 9. The employment report was the best reading on job losses since before Lehman Brothers failed in September of last year - the event that precipitated the peak of the financial crisis.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_8_10_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:49 AM | Permalink

We are starting to see some parts of our economy begin to heal from the big bank meltdown that started last fall. And after severe declines in U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, the second quarter report shows a modest 1% drop in real GDP. However, many areas remain weak—consumer spending, business investment, residential construction and inventory investment were all down, while net exports (due to huge declines in imports) and government spending were up. 

Continue reading "The Road to Recovery Continues" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:44 AM | Permalink

Last week’s economic calendar was chock full of data, and the data continued to confirm that the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression was on the cusp of ending as Q2 2009 ended and Q3 2009 began. This week, it’s another busy week for data, dominated by the employment data for July due out at the end of the week. As was the case last week, this week’s data set will allow market participants to continue to assess the exact timing, and more importantly, the pace, composition and sustainability of the economic recovery.

Stocks built on the rally with another net gain last week, ending the week with the S&P 500 Index up 46% from this year’s low point. In fact, July was the best month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since October 2002—the end of the last bear market. On Thursday, the S&P 500 index came just a few points shy of 1,000 during the day—the highest level on the index since November of last year. On Friday, second quarter GDP was reported to have been down just 1%, compared to the 5-6% declines in the prior two quarters, showing us that the recession has faded quickly and a recovery in the economy is now at hand. .

Market participants were pricing in another Great Depression early this year as stocks fell an additional 25% from the start of the year to the low point on March 9. Then stocks rallied nearly 40% over the two months following the low point as the markets began to reflect expectations of a mere recession rather than a depression...

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_8_3_09.pdf

Continue reading "What Comes Next?" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:52 PM | Permalink

While last week's batch of economic data was sparse in number, the reports that were released continued to paint a picture of an economy that was on the cusp of recovery. This week's data calendar is much more importantly, the pace, composition and sustainability of the economic recovery.

From the June index of leading indicators on Monday, July 20 to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the second half of July on Friday, July 24, every piece of economic data released last week came in above expectations, was better than the prior month and showed that the overall economy was getting better - not just that it had stopped getting worse. That news, along with a solid week of Q2 earnings reports - and more importantly, earnings guidance - from S&P 500 companies allowed the S&P 500 companies to post a second consecutive weekly gain, leaving the index at its highest weekly close since October 3, 2008.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_7_27_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:54 AM | Permalink

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:20 AM | Permalink

Equity markets broke a four week losing streak last week, in part because the week's economic data provided more evidence that the recession was over, or very close to being over. In fact, of the 12 key pieces of economic data released last week, 11 came in better than expected, and of those 11, six pointed to outright improvement in the economy versus the prior period. These six reports passed our "new paradigm" test for economic data: They beat expectations, were better than the prior month, and showed that the economy was improving, not just that the economy had stopped getting worse.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_7_19_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 01:03 PM | Permalink

If you’ve ever fantasized about quitting your job and starting a business, you’re certainly not alone. However, it’s definitely not something to do on a whim – you’ll need time and good advice.
A business startup requires parallel planning in advance for your business and personal finances.

That’s because business owners – even those who are acquiring ongoing businesses or starting their own companies on the cheap – quickly find their business and personal finances are inextricably linked. 

That means that before you plan the business, plan your finances first. Here are some basic steps to consider right now:

To see more of the services that MWBoone & Associates provides, please go to www.mwboone.com.

Continue reading "Thinking About Starting a Business? In This Economy, Don’t Quit Your Day Job – Start With Good Advice First" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 10:33 AM | Permalink

After a very slow week of economic news last week, there is an enormous amount of data due out this week, which will help to firm up forecasters' estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q2 2009 and over the second half of 2009. The Q2 GDP report is out at the end of July.

Last week's key economic data - jobless claims, May merchandise trade, May wholesale inventories and June service sector sentiment - suggested that real GDP in Q2 2009 was on pace to contract at about a 1.0% annualized clip in Q2, after dropping by 5.5% in Q1 2009 versus Q4 2008. Our published forecast is for real GDP to decline between 2.0 and 3.0% in Q2 2009, with real GDP growth turning positive in Q3 and Q4 2009, and we will stick by that forecast now. The consensus is looking for a 1.8% drop in real GDP in Q2, a 1.0% gain in Q3 and a 1.9% gain in Q4.

To see the resat of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_7_13_09.pdf

To see more of the services that MWBoone & Associates provides, please go to www.mwboone.com.

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:25 AM | Permalink

Continue reading "Ways to Save Money on Health Care and Health Insurance in Troubled Times" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:29 AM | Permalink

Four times a year investors focus on the most fundamental driver of investment performance: earnings. The second quarter earnings season gets underway this week. However, the companies that report early in the season are most often not the bellwethers they are commonly thought to be. We will not really know how results are shaping up until the end of the month when about half of the companies will have reported.

As companies report their second quarter results, we will be looking most closely at third quarter earnings guidance. The expectations for the third quarter matter more than results for the second quarter, since the economy showed signs of bottoming during the second quarter and investors are focused on the impact of this change in direction for profits. Second quarter GDP is likely to have been negative, reflecting shrinking economic output. However, in the third quarter GDP is likely to be positive, as the economy begins after a year of contraction.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_7_6_09.pdf

To see more of the services that MWBoone & Associates provides, please go to www.mwboone.com.

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:59 AM | Permalink

The June employment report turned out to be a major disappointment for market participants looking for continued, straight-line improvement in the labor market. After seeing steady improvement in the labor market since early 2009, markets had come to expect that the steady improvement would continue until the economy was adding jobs by the end of 2009. The June jobs report called into question that "steady progress", as the economy shed more jobs in June (-467,000) than it did in May (-322,000), and shed more jobs than the market expected - the market was looking for a 367,000 drop in payrolls in June. The only "bright spot" in the June labor market report was the unemployment rate in June versus May was the smallest month over month rise since the unemployment rate held steady between August and September 2008. Between October 2008 and May 2009, the unemployment rate moved by an average of 0.4% per month.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_7_6_09.pdf 

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:58 AM | Permalink

Continue reading "Be Careful When Rebalancing Your Kid’s 529 Plan Allocation" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:55 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:43 AM | Permalink

At the heart of it, markets come down to buyers and sellers. Taking a look at who is buying and who is selling can tell us something about the durability of the stock market's recent performance and what may lie ahead.

Presently, there are three notable trends in buying and selling in the stock market........

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http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_6_29_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:43 AM | Permalink

Continue reading "Why Financial Planning Matters in the Toughest of Times" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 03:54 PM | Permalink

Last week's economic data for May and June on leading indicators, jobless claims, housing starts and manufacturing supported our view that the U.S. economy was on track to emerge from recession in the second half of 2009. Meanwhile, the inflation data for May continued to show headline deflation and only modest inflation at the core level.

Looking ahead to this week, markets will be focused on another batch of housing data for May (new and existing home sales) and data on business capital spending and consumer spending in May (durable goods orders and personal income and spending). The key event for the week, however, is likely to be the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. With Fed policy on hold . . . .

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_6_23_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:12 AM | Permalink

The stock market measured by the S&P 500, fell last week for only the third time in 14 weeks. The stock market has rallied about 40% off of the low, but still stands 40% below the peak. Is this modest decline a chance for those that have been waiting to buy on the dips, or should the weakness be seen in a more negative light as the start of a full retest back to March lows?

We believe the markets are undergoing a healthy process of discovering - then retreating from - the thresholds at which key factors may begin to have a material negative direct affect on consumers and businesses. The fact that this process is taking place without explicit policy action demonstrates that the markets may be coming off of the Washington life supports machine.

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_6_23_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:22 AM | Permalink

Continue reading "Planning a Cost-Effective Job Search" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 10:19 AM | Permalink

For much of the past three months we have seen the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and the S&P 500 move up together. They both reflect the improving economic data and conditions for the markets tracked by our Current Conditions Index. However, since the start of June, when the yields definitively moved above 3.5%, stocks and bonds have parted ways, with stocks flattening as yields moved up to 4%.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_6_10_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:01 AM | Permalink

At the margin, last week's batch of economic data was neither as dramatic nor decisive as the data released during the first week in June. The data included an eclectic mix of data on business inventories, merchandise trade, retail sales and consumer sentiment that provided some insight into the pace and composition of ceconomic growth in Q2 2009. On balance, the data suggested that the U.S. economy was still on track for our base case as outlined in our 2009 Outlook publication. If anything, the data suggested that the decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) in Q2 2009 might be a bit steeper that the consensus now believes (-2.0%), due to another big drawdown in inventories. However, the prolonged weakness in inventory destocking in Q2 helps to set the stage for a positive print on real GDP in Q3. As always, we will continue to monitor the incoming data closely.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_6_15_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:32 AM | Permalink

Last week's economic data, including the better than expected May employment report, confirmed that the U.S. economy was still on track for our base case as outlined in our 2009 Outlook publication. At the margin, the better than expected May nonfarm payroll report suggests that growth in the economy as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP) could resume by as soon as the third quarter of 2009. However, for now we are sticking with our base case which calls for a flat reading on real GDP in Q3 and a resumption of growth in Q4 2009. We will continue to monitor the incoming data closely.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_6_8_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:32 AM | Permalink

We are between the quarterly earnings report seasons and that has left markets free to fret about all sorts of things – economic reports, government policy announcements and actions, bankruptcy filings, various scandals, etc., etc.  Right now it appears that we are “climbing the wall of worry”.

Absent earnings reports for the second quarter, U.S. equity markets have been staging a jittery recovery from the early March lows with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ now showing positive returns year-to-date, while the Dow is still a bit below.  Sector earnings reports generally improved in Q1, but Financials, Energy, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary are only back to near zero earnings per share from huge Q4 losses.  Consumer Staples, Technology, Healthcare, Telecom, and Utilities avoided Q4 losses and staged modest rebounds in Q1.  I expect, generally speaking, further improvements in Q2 earnings reports—the silver lining to the cloud of weak economic reports.

Continue reading "Markets Continue to Fret" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:56 AM | Permalink

Last week, global financial markets braced for the bankruptcy of GM, cheered for a quick end to Chrysler's bankruptcy, all the while trying to gauge the impact of the automakers' meltdown on the U.S. economy. Then news on housing last week suggested that the bottoming process in that sector continued, while the release of the regional manufacturing surveys offered hope that the pain of the auto bankrupties may be contained.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_6_2_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 12:10 PM | Permalink

Government bond yields have moved sharply higher in 2009 - although they remain at historically low levels. After reaching a low of 2.05% on December 30, 2008 the yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to a high of 3.74% last week, reversing the decline in yields that took place during the fourth quarter. The price of the 10-year T-note, which moves in the opposite direction of the yield, has plunged, resulting in about a 25% loss over the same period. Late last year, we recommended avoiding Treasuries and wrote about developing bubble in them as investors sought safe haven from the financial crisis. Now that the direction of government interest rates has clearly turned around, what does the rise in Treasury yields mean for the economy and markets?

To see the rest of this article, pleas click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_6_1_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 10:42 AM | Permalink

After improving noticeably (and rapidly) over the last two weeks months, both the financial markets and U.S. economy have arrived at essentially the same place: higher expectations. In early 2009, financial market participants found acceptable that the U.S. economy merely stopped getting worse, or that the U.S. government had a viable plan to address housing, the banking system and the mortgage crisis, and that the Federal Reserve was not repeating the monetary policy mistakes of the 1930's. Now, as May turns into June, and the economy enters the 17th month of the recession that began in December 2007 (making it the longest recession sicne the early 1930's), financial markets are no longer satisfied with an economy that has "stopped getting worse." The market wants to see real sustainable growth in the economy - not just less negative readings. On the policy front, the market now wants to see the proof that the government's policies on housing, the banking system, and the mortgage crisis working. On monetary policy, markets have come around to the view that the Fed has not repeated the monetary policy mistakes made in the early 1930's that deepened the Great Depression, but now are beginning to worry more about the Fed's "exit strategy", and its potential impact on inflation.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_5_26_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 01:38 PM | Permalink

Geopolitical events have been reasserting an influence on the markets after a brief honeymoon period with a new U.S. administration for foreign leaders to assess and a global financial crisis to deal with.

Last week we witnessed India's election igniting a powerful global stock market rally on Monday, May 18 when ruling Congress Party emerged victorious. If the hard-line nationalist main opposition party had won, Indian restraint against Pakistan would not be assured in the event of another large-scale militant attack like the one that took place in Mumbai in November 2008. With the suprisingly strong showing by India's ruling party, India is staying on the sidelines and looking to the United States to manage Pakistan's jihadist problems.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_5_26_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:05 AM | Permalink

The LPL Financial Research Crisis Index (CCI) is an objective and transparent measure of how the conditions are evolving relative to our base case, bear, and bull cases defined in our Outlook 2009 publication. This weekly index is not intended to be a leading index or predictive of where conditions are headed, but merely a coincident measure of where they are right now. We want to track the conditions in real time to aid investment decision making. There are thousands of indicators-some lead the economy, some lag, while others merely offer a lot of statistical noise. We chose to create our own index tailored to the current environment to provide the clearest and most useful way to track how conditions are aligned with the expectations embedded in our investment recommendations.

To view the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Crisis_Condition_Index_5_20_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:59 AM | Permalink

Lasty week's 5% loss for the S&P 500 almost fully reversed the gain of the prior week. Over the preceding nine weeks stocks rose steadily as economic data proved stronger than expected. As last week's performance attests, market participants' greater expectations now leave room for disappointment and the return of volatility.

Around the turning points during the healing is typically uneven - some parts of the economy begin to show signs of improvement while others are still worsening. The early signs of improvement signaling the bottom is near are usually welcomed with a rally in stocks and corporate bonds despite the mixed economic data. The rally often ends when investors get impatient waiting for improvement to show up in all areas. As expectations get too great some of the data is bound to disappoint.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_5_20_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:02 AM | Permalink

The title of our most recent Weekly Economic Commentary was "What's Next"? In the commentary, we posed some rhetorical questions about the economy and markets that market participants may be asking themselves over the next few weeks and months. We didn't necessarily have answers for the questions we posed, but asked them to help frame our analysis of the economy, policy, anf financial markets over the near term.

The questions we asked last week remain valid (and many remain unanswered), and not suprisingly last week's flow of information on the markets, economy, and policy has prompted even more questions.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_5_19_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:00 AM | Permalink

Continue reading "How Does the Stimulus Plan Affect You? It’s Good to Get Some Advice Now" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 10:23 AM | Permalink