This is an article from the Seattle Times discussing one of the reasons why housing prices are so high. To see this article, please click on the link below:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004181704_eicher14.html
"Residents of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho cut per capita gasoline consumption by 11 percent from 1999 to 2007, or nearly a gallon a week on average, according to a new report by Sightline Institute, a sustainability think tank".
To see the rest of this Puget Sound Business Journal article, please click on the link below:
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2008/04/14/daily27.html?f=et80&ana=e_du
I have to say honestly – as I always do – that this sub-prime problem is obviously bigger than I anticipated. The amount of leverage in “hedge” funds and many of the big banks has caused some serious dislocations. Also, we have had bad actors – some secondary mortgage companies that have not allowed folks to refinance their first mortgages, primary dealers that have backed away from supporting auction rate securities markets, predatory lenders, etc. The scope of this problem also caught the Treasury and the Federal Reserve (Fed) by surprise, but they are catching up fast.
LPL's Lincoln Anderson has a brand new commentary piece on the current price of gold and the reasoning behind the dramatic increase in price. To see this article, please click on the link below:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/Lincoln_Anderson_FoolsGold_3_5_08.pdf.
Have you ever wondered what they are or whether they are an appropriate investment for you?
An oil and gas partnership is a direct investment in exploration and production for energy resources. These investments have minimum net worth and income thresholds, although do not generally require accredited investors. Investors typically receive monthly cash distributions (these are not guaranteed) that will continue as long as there are productive wells, years into the future.
Your weekly Update on Risks and Opportunities in the financial markets from LPL's Jeff kleintop. To see this article, please click on the link below:
Lincoln Anderson's PowerPoint on the current state of the economy. To view the powerpoint, please click on the link below:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/Economic_Update_Feb_22_2008.ppt
It is commonly accepted that the P/E (Price Earnings Ratio) is a key metric in evaluating the not only individual stocks but the valuation of the stock market as a whole.
P/E ratios for the US stock market are generally understood to reflect fair valuation when they range between 14 and 20. Exactly where depends on many factors including interest rates and whether looking at current year, trailing 12-month or forward twelve months.
Continue reading "Stock Market Observations: Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratios -- Check Your Numbers" »
Financial markets continue to be roiled by sub-prime mortgage concerns. And a number of doom and gloom prognosticators are saying we are in a recession or predicting recession. I continue to disagree with these gloomy assessments of the U.S. economy. I am confident we are not in a recession, and I do not expect a recession this year.
“A single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is a single black [one].
” From “The Black Swan”
By Nassim Taleb (2007)
The mortgage crisis meets the description of a “black swan”. Recently, the Wall Street Journal published a description of how one trader (Mr. John Paulson) was able to profit handsomely from betting on this “black swan”. (January 15, 2008, Trader Made Billions on Subprime). How handsomely? Profits of $15 billion in 2007, nearly equal to Citigroup write-offs reported in their December 31 quarterly earnings announcement.
Continue reading "The Dismal Science -- Economics: Black Swans and the Mortgage Crisis fine’" »
We all know that it is more expensive to fill our gas tanks – did you know that there is also a direct relationship to the lower dollar? Many commodities are priced in U.S. dollars (e.g., gold and oil), which makes these items cheaper for non-U.S. citizens to obtain and makes them more expensive for us to purchase. LPL has put out a new market update for this current week of February 4th. Please click on the link below to see the article:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/MarketUpdate_Feb_4_2008.pdf
In this article, LPL's Jeff Kleintop writes on why the price of oil hit $100 a barrel and where the price of oil might be in the future. To read this article please click on the link below.
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/100barrel.pdf
LPL's Lincoln Anderson has put out another timely Market Update. To read the article please click on the link below:
http://mwboone.com/blog/Market_Update_Jan_22_08.pdf
"A single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is a single black [one].”
From “The Black Swan”
By Nassim Taleb (2007)
Previously, I posed an observation that the current “mortgage crisis” is a “Black Swan”. If that is so, if one knew in advance that a “Black Swan” was present, what actions could reasonably be taken?
Continue reading "The Dismal Science -- Economics: Black Swans and the Mortgage Crisis Redux" »
In our experience, people tend to look at the stock market in one of two ways. Most people see the market like this, and they are absolutely correct.
Continue reading "Some Perspective on the Stock Market and Volatility" »
The media is now worried about recession. Doom and gloom is everywhere, and the stock market is off to an awful start this year. The Dow is down 6.0% year to date, and the S&P 500 is down 6.5%. Some (the optimists!) are comparing the current “credit market crisis” with 1998, when we had emerging market debt defaults and a big hedge fund named “Long-Term Capital” blew up. Back then, the S&P 500, which had been showing big gains, dropped about as sharply as it has lately and then recovered for nearly two years as the “credit crisis” faded.Continue reading "Market Update from LPL's Lincoln Anderson" »
LPL Research Market Update
U.S. Bank Balance Sheet: Seizing Up or Bulking Up? LPL's Lincoln Anderson provides his insight into current financial market trends. Please click below for the full article.
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/lpl_seizing_up_or_bulking_up.pdf
The first beneficiary of Social Security was Ida May Fuller in 1940. Though she had only paid in a total of $24.75 over three years of taxes, her first monthly retirement benefit check was $22.74. Over Ida's lifetime she received income of almost $23,000, an amount approaching 1,000 times what she put in.
The mortgage insurance company, PMI Inc. did a study of real estate booms and busts in the past to see how long some previous downturns have lasted. They looked at three boom markets: Houston in the ‘80s and Los Angeles, and Boston in the‘90s. Here is what they discovered.Continue reading "A Family Mission Statement Can Keep Family Goals First" »
LPL's Lincoln Anderson and his predictions for 2008:
Below, LPL's Lincoln Anderson provides his in depth analysis of where the US economy has been and what recent changes have taken place. The powerpoint version has additional comments but we have also provided an adobe (.pdf) version as well.
Powerpoint:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/lpl_economic_update_11_15_2007.ppt
Adobe (.pdf):
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/lpl_economic_update_11_15_07.pdf
LPL’s Chief Strategist has written a paper discussing what kinds of things can go wrong in the world and how to protect yourself from these things financially.
Click below for the full article:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/lpl_geopolitical_risk.pdf
Click below for LPL's predictions for 2008:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/lpl_weekly_research_predictions_for_2008.pdf
Well, despite all the doom and gloom out there in the media, the economy keeps on ticking. The headlines are screaming about subprime mortgage loan problems, but the macroeconomic data continues to improve.
Continue reading "The Economy keeps on Ticking by Lincoln Anderson, LPL Chief Economist" »
The news has certainly been bleak. Investors are left dazed and confused, trying to determine whether the worst is behind us or yet to come.
Recent selected headlines include . . .
“A single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is a single black [one].”
From “The Black Swan”
By Nassim Taleb (2007)
Continue reading "The Dismal Science -- Economics:Black Swans and the Mortgage Crisis" »
Continue reading "When Real Estate’s in Trouble, Spruce up Your Home and Finances" »
On a personal planning basis, when we think of saving for retirement we think of a small amount of money that builds and builds to a large amount which is finally withdrawn from in retirement years. But we seldom talk about the other side of the equation: what economists call human or individual capital.
I am happy to report that, in my opinion, the mountain of a problem that sub prime mortgages supposedly represented did turn out to be more like a molehill. Yet again, the media blew a smallish problem for the economy and financial markets way out of proportion. And financial markets have largely recovered from the scare. Broad equity indexes like the Dow, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have completely recovered from the trough hit in mid-August.
